Executive Summary — Export & Import Balance

Türkiye enters late 2025 with record exports but faster-rising imports, widening the trade deficit again.

• Exports (Jan–Oct 2025): 224.6 bn USD • +3.9% y/y
• Imports (Jan–Oct 2025): 299 bn USD • +6% y/y
• Trade deficit: 74.4 bn USD • +12.9% y/y

Exports strong. Import pressure back.

Rolling Export Records

• Rolling 12-month goods exports: 270.2 bn USD
• Total goods + services exports: 390 bn USD as of Oct 2025

Strong manufacturing + tourism, logistics, and services push exports to all-time highs.

Year Comparison: 2023 ? 2025

• 2023: Deficit 106.3 bn USD
• 2024: Deficit improved to 82.2 bn USD
• 2025: Import demand rises ? deficit widens again

2024 was a repair year, but pressures returned in 2025.

Inflation & Growth Snapshot

• Inflation (Oct 2025): 32.87%
• ENAG: ~63%
• GDP Growth 2025 Q2: +4.4% y/y

Inflation is much lower than 2024 peak but still high; growth remains steady and positive.

Medium-Term Outlook (IMF / OECD)

• Growth: 3–4% annually to 2030
• Inflation: gradually trending to ~15% by 2030
• Current account deficit: stabilising near –1.5% GDP

Cautiously optimistic long-term trajectory.

Trade Indicators Summary

Exports remain strong, but imports accelerate due to high energy and input costs.

Export Strength in 2025

• October exports: 24 bn USD
• Rolling exports: surpass 2024 annual total

Driven by automotive, machinery, metals, and consumer goods.

Import Cost Pressures

Energy, gold and industrial inputs push imports up sharply.

Monthly Momentum Pattern

Exports rise slowly; imports rise sharply — showing structural dependence on imported goods.

GDP Growth Performance

Türkiye’s economy expands strongly in Q2 2025, driven by services, industry, and domestic demand.

Inflation & Monetary Policy

Inflation remains the key risk; interest rate cuts are cautious and data-driven.

External Balance & FDI

FDI at its highest in a decade; current account deficit improved versus crisis years.

2030 Scenarios — Baseline, Optimistic & Pessimistic

Türkiye’s future path depends on reforms, policy consistency, and global dynamics.

Business & Investor Implications

Türkiye remains a high-opportunity market — but requires strategic planning, cost management, and close monitoring of inflation and policy signals.